Tell me if this is a cant lose money maker with live wagering

[CHOPTALK]

Does anyone besides me agree that the line on live events gets way overinflated for the team that scores first in football on a game where the spread is 3 points or less?

I am wondering if you can make money long term just by betting against the team that scores first.

Lets say the Colts are -3 -108 at kickoff against Seattle(This is just an example)and the Colts score a quick TD to start the game.

Generally they will then make Seattle +3 +180 or so in the live wagering.

Dont you think these people are overinflating the team that scores first? I dont have the data to back myself up on this but I have noticed that these people are putting a much too high premium on the team that scores first.

I feel that if you go against the team that scores first in live betting you can make a small fortune long term.

Does anyone else have anything worth mentioning that says otherwise?

 

[zee]

I am wondering if you can make money long term just by betting against the team that scores first.

No, longterm, you can't make money on ANY statement like that. Even if stats today say the split is 80:20% in favour of making money, in 3 years it may show 20:80%. That's why all the outrage about favourites covering was so ridiculous. ALthought many people still don't realize it. The whole "it has been, so it will be" idea is naive.

 

[cincy_]

I have seen one major flaw from Pinny in live wagering. I have used it to cash easy, easy scalps a couple of times so I thought they had corrected it

... but they made the same mistake yesterday and I got another easy scalp. The guy who adjusts the line HAS TO go by the book (and action), and I guess "the book" hasn't changed yet.

 

[earl]

too dicey for me. but you are right, they move the juice in a big way just on a first down. if you put the time and effort in it and you have the balls to try to predict the outcome of the next play, go for it. way too much stress for me.

 

[winbet]

Chop,
I would put myself up against anyone when it comes to making odds, but in my experience, especially on Betfair, the original prices seem to go out the door when the game starts. NFL is more predictive because its slow but NBA is a joke, I often have to think twice as the odds on offer are ludicrous, many a time I have seen a team the same price after going 6 up as they were at the start. I would be cautious with Books as their Built-in margin is likely to be big, basically making you pay for 2-4 Pts.

 

[Buster]

this type of betting is a must for gamblers.this year on monday nights(the only time pinny offers this,except yesterday) i have made plays on live betting,it is the only way i have been able to stay afloat.an example from yesterday

when chicago took a 7-0 lead against gnb i played gnb +7.5 +172 (you know they marched straight down the field)

then when gnb tied it at 7-7 got chi -7.5 +141


SO I SAT BACK AND RELAXED THE REST OF THE GAME KNOWING NO MATTER WHO WON I WOULD EITHER WIN 72 PER 100 OR 41 PER 100.IT IS A VERY GOOD FEELING!

 

[winbet]

this type of betting is a must for gamblers.this year on monday nights(the only time pinny offers this,except yesterday) i have made plays on live betting,it is the only way i have been able to stay afloat.an example from yesterday

when chicago took a 7-0 lead against gnb i played gnb +7.5 +172 (you know they marched straight down the field)

then when gnb tied it at 7-7 got chi -7.5 +141


SO I SAT BACK AND RELAXED THE REST OF THE GAME KNOWING NO MATTER WHO WON I WOULD EITHER WIN 72 PER 100 OR 41 PER 100.IT IS A VERY GOOD FEELING!

Interesting odds Buster, care to say where you got them. Chances are they wont be around for long

 

[Buster]

pinnacle. i just finished reading your other post about the "future" good stuff

 

[winbet]

pinnacle. i just finished reading your other post about the "future" good stuff

Buster,
Ive just had that sharp Santo say the same thing so fair enough. Personally I cant see this as normal, regardless of opinion or spread, its obvious those prices you quoted are suicidal, as for pinnacle being the instigators, then that only solidifies my belief that they are not bookmakers but traders.

 

[Buster]

i am playing this way again tonight will post the lines i get in this thread as i do it.considering the game does not get out of hand to early!LOL

 

[winbet]

i am playing this way again tonight will post the lines i get in this thread as i do it.considering the game does not get out of hand to early!LOL

Ok Buster I will play along, but as I said in tmy other thread, in order to know value you have to know your odds. So, what price do you take initially and what price do you consider pinnacle to be giving you a joke bet.

 

[CHOPTALK]

<TABLE borderColor=blue width=680 border=0><TBODY><TR class=tableText height=30><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>4:34pm
25-Dec-05</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>25-Dec-05</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>Football
Spread</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom align=left>Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (+14.5) for Game</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>+135</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I also won this nice little wager during live action at pinnacle yesterday. I could not resist the odds I was getting.

 

[Rawpimple]

I agree after watching a lot of live betting the lines get exaggerated rather early. Definitely good opportunities.

 

[Buster]

well like you i was on the "right side" for a while.it is just something you learn to know. they have been fooling around with this stuff all season and just recently started this minus 7 crap.before that it was all moneylines.i remember getting the redskins +1600 this year when they played dallas (on monday night)

 

[winbet]

<TABLE borderColor=blue width=680 border=0><TBODY><TR class=tableText height=30><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>4:34pm
25-Dec-05
</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>25-Dec-05</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap>Football
Spread
</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom align=left>Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (+14.5) for Game</TD><TD class=accountText vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right>+135</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I also won this nice little wager during live action at pinnacle yesterday. I could not resist the odds I was getting.

Chop,
This hardly says whether you got value or not, which I thought was the whole point of the thread. I make my own prices up but at the end of the day, you are dictated to by what the books think and do as for prices, this isnt a problem if you are betting your opinion but their prices are very systematic and if you have no opinion then betting along those lines is no more than guessing at the original outcome.

 

[cincy_]

I have had a lot of success at Pinny but ZERO success at WSEX with live betting.

I don't think I can win at the live betting at Bet365 because of 40 cent lines. That is hard to scalp and they don't change the vig on basketball, they just change the line so the best you can hope for is a middle - and trying to middle something with 40-cent lines isn't beatable.

 

[cincy_]

<table border="0" bordercolor="blue" width="680"><tbody><tr class="tableText" height="30"><td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">4:34pm
25-Dec-05</td><td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">25-Dec-05</td><td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">Football
Spread</td><td class="accountText" align="left" valign="bottom">Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (+14.5) for Game</td><td class="accountText" align="right" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">+135</td></tr></tbody></table>
I also won this nice little wager during live action at pinnacle yesterday. I could not resist the odds I was getting.

This was up to +330 when Chicago had the ball and was up 17

 

[CHOPTALK]

Perfect example.

The Jets are now +7.5 +189!!!!!!

Its only 7-0

This is way!!!!!!too high.

I will bite on this one.

 

[Buster]

chop unless you like jets to get the spread now hit nwe -7.5 +100

 

[LEYKIS101]

Bit on that one too Chop, got +244 after the review no fumble.